Today...Breezy...snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Highs 21°F to 27°F. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 5°F to 11°F. West winds around 15 mph.

Sunday...Breezy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Highs 17°F to 23°F. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday Night...Breezy. Snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 4 inches. Lows 8°F to 14°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Monday...Breezy...snow. Snow accumulation of 3 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulation 8 to 10 inches. Highs 21°F to 27°F. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Monday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows -3°F to -9°F. Wind chill readings -14°F to -24°F.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 11°F to 17°F. Lowest wind chill readings -21°F to -31°F in the morning.

Tuesday Night...Colder. Partly cloudy. Lows -8°F to -16°F.

Wednesday...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 11°F to 17°F.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -6°F to 0°F.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 16°F to 22°F.

Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 1°F to 7°F.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs 20°F to 26°F.

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Mountain Weather

A moist Northwest flow has delivered a welcomed shot of snow to southwest Montana. Since yesterday morning, 11 inches of snow has fallen in the mountains around Cooke City; 5-6 inches has fallen in the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky and 3-4 inches has fallen around West Yellowstone. Winds are blowing out of the West-Northwest at 20-30 mph with ridgetop gusts reaching into the 40s. Temperatures are in the high teens to low 20s and will warm into the mid 30s by this afternoon. Snow will continue through the day with an additional 3-6 inches possible by this evening. Southwest Montana will see a break in the weather tonight, but another round of snow will impact our region Sunday night into Monday.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, the mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

Mud season usually starts around April or May in Montana, but it seems that it has arrived in early February this year. Yesterday, my partners and I skied near Flathead Pass in the northern Bridger Range and got an unexpected dose of wet weather (rain) and yes - mud; not quite what we were expecting. Fortunately, rain levels stayed below 6,000 feet. We did find stable conditions on upper elevation slopes.

Today, wind loaded slopes will be the primary avalanche concern. Upper elevation slopes favored by West-Northwest winds will be the most likely to produce a slide but mid-elevation, cross loaded slopes may produce avalanches as well. Recently formed wind drifts sitting upon surface hoar, near surface facets, or lower density snow will likely be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Look for visual clues like fat, rounded and pillow like formations that indicate recent wind loading. Visualizing shooting cracks or recent avalanche activity are prime indicators the snowpack is unstable. Avoiding steep, wind loaded slopes today will be the best way to avoid triggering a slide.

A secondary concern is any steep slope with a shallow snowpack. Upper elevation, rocky terrain will be the most likely areas to find weak, faceted snow. Many of these shallow areas may have been weak, but not unstable prior to this latest storm (video). However, the weight of new and windblown snow may be enough to stress these weaker areas into failure. If you are able to push your ski pole to the ground, finding another slope to ride will likely be in your best interest.

Today, continued snow and wind will make human triggered avalanches likely on all wind loaded slopes where the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE. Slopes that have not received a wind load have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

West Yellowstone: Beacon Park Operational

Skiing or riding near West Yellowstone? Test your beacon skills at a beacon park near the old airport where you can search for pre-placed beacons switched on/off by a control panel. Look for it by orange snow fence and signage just south of the snow cross track.

9th ANNUAL KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE

The 9th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge will be held at Bridger Bowl on Saturday, February 12. ALL proceeds go to the Friends of the Avalanche Center who use the money to promote avalanche education in southwest Montana. Last winter we taught 64 classes reaching over 4,900 people. You can help raise money to continue this education in 2 ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once! Or you can test your mettle and try and break John Yarington's record of 29 laps in 5 hours.

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Click Here for more information and registration forms.